S&P 500 Annual Returns
Get People Sick
Genti Cici, CFP® · 5 min read
Pull up a chart of the S&P 500's annual returns since 1928. Go ahead, I'll wait.
It looks like an EKG from someone having a panic attack. Up 31%. Down 37%. Up 23%. Down 4%. Up 29%. It's violent. It's unpredictable. And if that chart is your primary lens for evaluating your investments, it's going to make you do something stupid.
Here's the problem. Most people say they're long-term investors. Twenty-year horizon. Retirement in 2045. "I'm not worried about short-term volatility." They say this at dinner parties. They say this to their advisor. They say this to themselves.
Then January rolls around. Their statement shows -14% for the year. And suddenly the 20-year horizon shrinks to the 20 minutes it takes to panic-sell and move everything to cash.
The data on this is embarrassing. Year after year, the average investor underperforms the very funds they're invested in. Not because the funds are bad. Because the humans holding them can't sit still.
That gap — the difference between what the market returned and what investors actually earned — is almost entirely behavioral. Buying high because it feels safe. Selling low because it feels necessary. Checking the account in December and making January decisions based on a number that means almost nothing in isolation.
The fix is counterintuitive: look less often.
Checking your portfolio every year is like weighing yourself after every meal. The number is real. The conclusion you draw from it is almost always wrong. You didn't gain five pounds from lunch. The market didn't break because it dropped 12% in a calendar year.
When you zoom out — from 1-year to 5-year to 10-year to 20-year returns — something remarkable happens. The saw teeth smooth out. The violent swings become gentle slopes. The S&P 500's worst 20-year rolling return in history is still positive. Every single time. Since 1928.
The market rewards patience. It punishes attention.
So what should you actually do?
Build a plan that matches your real timeline, not your emotional one. If you don't need the money for 15 years, the fact that it dropped 18% this year is noise. Loud noise. Uncomfortable noise. But noise.
Then stop checking. I'm serious. Quarterly at most. If you're a decade out from needing the money, twice a year is fine. The less you look, the less you react. The less you react, the more you keep.
The S&P 500's annual returns will keep looking like saw teeth. They always have. That chart isn't broken — your relationship with it is.
The market doesn't make people sick. The frequency of checking does.
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